From Emergency to Transformation: Applying the UN Foresight Toolkit in Fragile Contexts.
The UN Futures Lab developed the UN Strategic Foresight Guide in 2023, with support from the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. It is part of a broader push under UN 2.0 to equip the United Nations system with the tools, mindsets, and capabilities needed to respond to a rapidly changing, uncertain world.
This guide was created to help UN staff and partners apply foresight in practical, flexible ways, whether at global, regional, or country level. It responds to the growing realization that traditional planning models are no longer sufficient in the face of today’s complex, interconnected, and often disruptive challenges—such as pandemics, climate instability, geopolitical tensions, and technological transformations.
By offering a set of accessible tools and real-world use cases, the guide supports UN entities and their partners to anticipate change, explore alternative futures, and build more adaptive and inclusive strategies. Its relevance is particularly critical in fragile or crisis-affected settings, where uncertainty is the norm, and resilience depends on the ability to look beyond immediate responses and shape long-term, transformative trajectories.
The UN Strategic Foresight Guide positions foresight as an essential response to the growing complexity of global crises. Unlike traditional planning, which relies heavily on past data, strategic foresight enables us to anticipate disruptions, explore alternative futures, and adjust current actions in light of deep uncertainty. It is not about predicting the future, but rather about cultivating a collective practice of imagination, analysis, and preparedness across all levels of governance—from field operations to UN headquarters. Ultimately, foresight is presented as a long-term mindset: one that encourages us to imagine beyond immediate fixes, to think collaboratively rather than in silos, and to institutionalize anticipation as a core capability of the UN system (UN 2.0). At Aliap, we fully align with this vision. As an African lab dedicated to foresight in international affairs, humanitarian response, and peacebuilding, we are committed to breaking down disciplinary silos, facilitating cross-sectoral and intergenerational dialogue, and equipping local actors to become co-creators of their futures. This guide reinforces our belief that resilience cannot be built solely by managing past crises—it must be rooted in our collective ability to imagine inclusive, transformative, and desirable futures, especially in fragile and protracted crisis settings.
The guide offers a practical toolkit for structuring foresight initiatives around three core functions: making sense of change (e.g., horizon scanning, futures wheels), imagining possible futures (e.g., scenario development, visioning), and taking informed action (e.g., backcasting, policy stress-testing, transformational agendas). These tools are particularly valuable in fragile, unstable, or post-conflict environments, where they help communities, governments, and partners co-create future-oriented strategies and make decisions that are more adaptive and robust.
Crucially, the document emphasizes the need to ground foresight in real-world decision-making by involving a diversity of voices—including those often marginalized, choosing time horizons that match the scale of intended change (whether focused on stability, growth, or transformation), and prioritizing “no-regret” options—actions that are beneficial across multiple possible futures. This approach moves us beyond reactive crisis management and toward a resilient, adaptive posture capable of navigating uncertainty and shaping systemic transformation.
The full report is available at un-futureslab.org/resources-guides/